A5 · Pillar A · Revenue Optimization
Border-adjusted carbon fee with household dividend
A federal fee on CO2-equivalent emissions from fossil-fuel extraction and processing, beginning at $40 per ton and rising on a defined schedule, with a border adjustment on imports from jurisdictions without comparable pricing. Net revenue is returned to households as a quarterly per-capita dividend, with a rural multiplier. Designed to be revenue-neutral to households on average.
- 10-year fiscal
- +$300B net to fiscRevenue
- Implementation
- Years 2–10
- Middle class
- Positive on average
- Planetary
- Strongly positive
After household dividends · Medium confidence
The dividend exceeds pass-through costs for roughly 60–70 percent of households, concentrated in the lower-middle and middle of the distribution.
Modeled emissions 25–40 percent below baseline at full fee schedule by Year 15.
Global precedent
British Columbia’s carbon tax (2008–) is associated with about a 13 percent reduction in per-capita fossil-fuel use relative to the rest of Canada, with no detectable adverse GDP effect. Sweden’s carbon tax (1991–) and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism provide additional templates.
Lead mechanism
Treasury; EPA (emissions monitoring); Customs and Border Protection (border adjustment).
Bipartisan framing
Conservative case
A revenue-neutral market mechanism returning money to households; the border adjustment functions as an anti-leakage competitiveness measure.
Progressive case
The central federal climate-policy mechanism, with progressive distributional outcomes through the rural-multiplier dividend.
Figures in this framework are illustrative directional estimates derived from publicly available data and conventional Congressional Budget Office budget-window logic. They are not official CBO scores. Any provision adopted from this framework would require formal CBO scoring before legislative consideration. This document is a policy white paper, not an introduced bill.